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Cake day: March 31st, 2025

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  • people see strait closed and think of oil because of course there’s a lot of oil going through it, but oil can be routed through pipelines outside gulf so impact on oil is less than that 20% commonly cited

    the bigger impact is on gas, because it can’t be transported that easily and it’s closer to 40% of supply. because gas is so hard to transport you can try to avoid doing that, so it’s turned into fertilizer and diesel and aluminum, whose transport is easier, and isn’t as constrained as LNG transport. byproduct of gas mining is helium and it can’t be mined on its own, and while valuable enough to be flown out of qatar supply stops when gas stops. gulf royals have seen that world tries to get rid of oil, so this energy intensive manufacture was intended as a sort of hedge or insurance, but this too stops without transport

    so, yeah. things that can be expected to directly get more expensive are energy in general and gas in particular, plastics of all kinds, aluminum, nitrogen fertilizer and to some degree phosphorus fertilizer (uses sulfur as input). and everything that depends on them, which is broadly everything. the only winning move is not to play ie use renewables for energy. these chinese officials who backed renewables buildout are probably the most vindicated people in hemisphere

    that said, you can make fertilizer from other fuels, and in other places too, so it’s likely that it will “just” get more expensive, and lower nitrogen use might work about as well because many farmers overapply it. if you are a westerner i guess you might not see it hitting you too hard, but in places like sudan that will be a problem





  • lora bitrate and radiated power are tiny and such considerations are only important in peacetime. gps is jammed now routinely and it’s more important than 95% of iot dogshit. telemetry and remote control that matters is either wired or has reserved separate band, like power grid switches. not sure wdym by logistics

    you also have to be stealthy and if you emit you’re seen and if you’re seen you’ll be found and soon dead. lora doesn’t help you with that especially if you increase power to overcome jamming. using starlink in iran now for example is a capital offense. last time i’ve checked, irgc ew looks for starlink wifi and they can find it even if it’s renamed because of its distinct signature. it takes less to spot lora. they do not look for uplink for some reason but they try to jam it and downlink too





  • on point 3, long distance communication invariably uses highly directional antennas, which means these need to be aimed precisely, which means special automated gimballed antenna set that would drop signal anyway probably

    also you definitely don’t want to deal with rotating gas seal that is also under pressure and fail-deadly, these already wear out quickly with sporadic use on earth. if there are two sections, one spinning and one not, both would have to be sealed